Over the past 48 hours, we have been keeping our eye on the multiple chances of severe weather across the country. It appeared that most of the severe weather would stay out of the state, but just at the noon update, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southwest Iowa in a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday.
The cause of all of this? An upper level low is currently sitting over South Dakota (to see current wind map, click here). This low will then begin to deepen as a cold front advances southeastward across the central high plains. Storms will likely be ongoing across eastern Kansas and southeast Nebraska by Wednesday morning. These storms will weaken by late morning Wednesday. This will then allow instability to increase throughout the afternoon. Storms will then begin to develop across Kansas and Nebraska by Wednesday afternoon.
Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible across northeast Kansas, and southeast Nebraska. This is where the best dynamics will be, and this will allow supercell development by Wednesday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has stated: “Storm Relative Helicities of 350 to 400 M2/S2 may be favorable for a few tornadoes and a strong tornado can not be ruled out.” This is something that we will have to keep an eye on, especially along outflow boundaries as that will enhance the tornado threat. These storms will then start to push into southwest Iowa late in the afternoon and into the early evening hours.
Back here at home, the main risks across southwest Iowa will be large hail and damaging winds. This is highly dependent on how much clearing we see by tomorrow afternoon. If we see a decent amount of clearing, this will allow the fuel for the storms. If we do not see a decent amount of clearing, then our severe threat across southwest Iowa will be low. Looking at the current models, it does appear that we will see a decent amount of clearing and heating, and this would explain why the addition to the slight risk across southwest Iowa in the latest SPC update.
As always, you can count on us to bring you the very latest updates. Make sure to follow our Facebook and Twitter pages closely over the next 24 hours.