From my home in Cedar Rapids, was treated to a rather pretty light show as strong storms north of the metro passed by. 1” hail was reported in northern Benton County Sunday Night as one storm briefly reached severe limits.
Now onto tonight. The severe threat is marginally higher however eastern Iowa still must overcome some hurdles for that threat to materialize. As the low treks through the state, timing is again off by a solid 6-8 hours. This means initial development will likely take place somewhere in Nebraska and/or western Iowa.
Eastern Iowa can expect a better chance of late night storms. As the convection becomes more elevated in nature, strong winds and large hail will be possible late this evening. Much like last night, the storms might also begin a “training” pattern which could lead to large amounts of rain over a small area.
Overall this is not a good chase scenario. The most potent storms will likely develop late and to our west. With an abundance of moisture in the area, any violent storms will likely take the shape of high precipitation supercells. That means visibilities within the storm will likely be greatly reduced from a high amount of moisture associated with it.
Once this system makes it out of eastern Iowa, things should quiet down for a few days, with attention turning to the latter half of the weekend. Already the Storm Prediction Center is warning of a large-scale severe weather outbreak in the Midwest.
At this time, models indicate the main threat to be slightly west of eastern Iowa. But with 7 days between us and the event, plenty of things can change for the better or worse. Will keep our eyes on in as a new weekend draws near.