Severe Threat Returns to Iowa

day3otlk_0730 Well I have to admit this is coming as a bit of a surprise.  I didn’t expect a severe threat to be posted for at least a couple of weeks in Iowa, but that’s what we’re facing on Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK posted a slight risk for most of the state.  The trigger in question in a frontal boundary expected to reach northwest Iowa sometime Sunday afternoon.  Storms could fire along the front but there’s still a lot in question.

Iowa will experience the warmest weather it’s seen all year on Sunday.  Parts of the state will easily reach the 90 degree mark.  With steep dew points and a moist atmosphere, conditions will likely be oppressive over the state.

This sets the state for a volatile combination and could trigger a round of strong storms capable of producing strong winds, large hail and tornadoes.  But I’m still apprehensive about this because most models are not picking up on this feature.

I’m not saying the risk shouldn’t have been posted, but I believe this is a cautionary measure by the SPC because there is a lot of uncertainty left in the forecast.

This slight risk posted today for Sunday is the only update we’ll see until very early on Saturday Morning.  We’ll monitor that update and another analysis on Saturday Afternoon and bring you the very latest here on iowachase.com.

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