May is generally a pretty significant month for severe weather in the Upper Midwest. Here in Iowa, that was not the case this year. Take a look at the graphic to the left. 25 reports of severe weather in the month of May. That’s the lowest figure I could find since detailed records were saved 10 years ago.
The second lowest I could find occurred last year, but this is well below the 10-year average for strong wind, large hail and tornado reports. You can see there were no reports of tornadoes in Iowa in the month of May. For storm chasers who focus on this area, this is very surprising.
But it certainly won’t take long for things to change. Already the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has posted a long-range risk area for the western half of Iowa. This area is for the threat of severe weather on Tuesday, June 1st.
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible the first week of June, this is just the first one. Timing and placement of storm development is still up in the air so I expect this risk area to change. The models are not coming together well and this will shift the threat area in the days ahead.
Beyond that, it’s tough to say how much severe weather Iowa could see this week. Tuesday’s development will greatly affect the chances for additional development on Wednesday. Something to certainly watch out for.
In the meantime, no major problems expected with a round of storms set to move in Sunday Night. Definitely nothing to cancel any weekend plans for just yet.