Severe Threat Expanded Further North Tuesday

Here is the latest regarding the severe weather potential across eastern Iowa Tuesday from the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities.

“Attention then turns to the cold front passage Tuesday afternoon and evening. SPC has expanded the marginal and slight risk areas farther north to include most of the forecast area, which is very reasonable give the largest suite of model data today. Some latest 18z runs, including the hi-res WRF, are pulling the potential threat north of the Interstate 80 corridor. Confidence in favored locations for severe is relatively low, but predictability will increase with new data overnight into Tuesday morning. The main threat is large hail, due to the prodigious deep layer shear and low freezing levels. A secondary concern is isolated damaging wind gusts.”

Something that will need to be watch closely is the tornado threat. As the NWS Quad Cities mentions, “surface winds do not appear to be backed enough to warrant mention of a significant tornado threat. But if timing and location become more favorable regarding a surface low along the boundary, there may be a small window for a tornado threat during the late afternoon.”

We will continue to keep an eye on the latest model data, and will update you when needed.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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