Strong to severe storms will be back in the forecast Tuesday afternoon across the upper Midwest. Today, a stalled frontal boundary across the state has made for a cool, cloudy, wet day. Showers will continue to persist throughout the afternoon and evening.
On Tuesday, an upper level low will be move directly over the state, with a cold front draping north to south from this low. This strong cold front will trigger the potential for strong to severe storms by Tuesday afternoon. There is a few items of concern, which would inhibit the severe weather potential.
The biggest concern is the cloud cover and precip that will be around for much of Tuesday morning. This will limit the destabilization of the atmosphere. If the sun were to come out tomorrow late morning to early afternoon, this would increase the severe potential. However, going on the assumption that the clouds and precip inhibit daytime heating, the main risks Tuesday will be damaging winds and large hail. If a tornado threat were to materialize, the greatest potential appears to exist across central Iowa. As storms move into eastern Iowa, the severe threat will transition to a damaging wind threat, as storms will begin to bow out.
Heavy rain will also exist with these storms. Three day rainfall totals will range from 1″ to 3″ across the state. The heaviest of the rainfall will fall across northern and northwest Iowa, which is where they don’t need the rain.
We will continue to monitor the latest model runs, as if we do get a break in the clouds and rain tomorrow, then the severe threat will be increased. After storms move out of the state late Tuesday, cooler weather will move in for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60’s to near 70!