Severe Risk Returns With Arrival of Cold Front

Untitled Friday will shape up to be an interesting forecast today for eastern Iowa.  Much like many severe weather events, many of the parameters are there with many questions unanswered.

Models are coming into agreement that overall timing of this system should not be a problem.  A cold front is forecast to move through eastern Iowa by late Friday afternoon or early evening.  The “prime time” passage of the front will give the region a chance to warm up and destabilize during the afternoon.  If eastern Iowa does not destabilize, then the severe threat will be minimized.

Also of question is a cap expected to take shape over eastern Iowa.  There is some thinking by both the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service that this will mean storms won’t develop ahead of the front, but rather directly on the boundary.

I believe this almost negates entirely the tornadic threat with this system.  The primary threat will be strong damage winds as the front sweeps through and large hail.

With little severe weather expected to our north and west today, there is not much that will disrupt the current forecast.  As always we will continue to monitor any changes today and into the overnight as we move into Friday and prepare for a possible chase tomorrow.

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