Storms this weekend remain likely as a cold front is expected to pass through eastern Iowa Saturday afternoon/evening. The front should be the focal point to develop a quick moving segment of storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
It is likely there will be plenty of energy in the atmosphere, temperatures should reach the 90’s with a heat index well into the 100’s. The front should be strong enough to break whatever cap might look over the area.
As I’ve said in previous postings, this is a system that will likely resemble the storm we saw on Tuesday and not like all other systems we’ve seen this year. As we transition into a more summer-like pattern, the risk for tornadoes is greatly reduced and we see more storms develop along sweeping cold fronts. This general means the main threat from supercells will become damaging winds.
While that sounds like a relief in some ways it is not. A long line of damaging winds can do just as much if not more damage than a tornado over a large area. As for this Saturday, the final outcome remains up to the timing of the front. Placement is not much of a concern because everyone will see this front pass at some time on Saturday.