This pattern that just doesn’t seem to stop will stretch well into next week, bringing with it a significant threat of severe weather. In the graphic to the left shows the area under a slight risk for severe weather on Sunday. This is a muddled risk at this time as it appears this could be an after sunset situation for Iowa. Right now the primary threat from any storms the develop on Sunday will be large hail and strong damaging winds.
Of more serious note is a risk for portions of Iowa on Monday and Tuesday. You can see the current risk areas highlighted in the graphic to the right. Although small, these risk areas will expand as the events draw closer. A strong storm system will bring a frontal boundary into a more than unstable air mass over Iowa, especially on Tuesday.
Although the forecast by the Storm Prediction Center currently does not include Iowa for Monday’s risk (in red), I expect that to change in the next couple of days. Right now it looks like we’ll see one round of severe weather overnight on Monday into Tuesday with a more serious severe weather threat during the day on Tuesday.
One major concern on Tuesday is the position of a warm front just ahead of the cold front as it enters western Iowa. Current thinking is that the frontal boundary will be somewhere along the Iowa – Minnesota border. That boundary will serve as the focal point for supercell develop and produce the greatest risk for tornadoes.
This threat could stretch into Wednesday when this storm system could produce another round of severe weather. And all of this comes as we still face a threat for severe weather today and Sunday. In fact right now Saturday appears to be the only day we’ll see a break in the action here in Iowa.
This pattern also will produce another serious concern, round after round of heavy rain. This could further aggravate the threat of flash flooding and river flooding over the area and will need to be closely monitored.