Timing is not on our side with this system. Severe weather remains a possibility especially for the northern half of Iowa tonight, but it’s expected to be an overnight event. Storms will streak from the Dakotas into Iowa tonight bringing with them a threat of strong winds, large hail and heavy rain. The front will then stall out over southern Iowa tomorrow setting the stage for another chance of severe weather.
As this time the Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Iowa under a slight risk for Monday. Instability should be there but there could be some problems with ongoing storms in the morning from Sunday Night’s event. At any rate, the chances of a chase are unclear and will simply have to monitor the situation throughout the day on Monday.
The good news is the two rounds of heavy rain over a 2-day period should not affect the same general area. Hopefully this will limit the potential flood threat. Looking further ahead, things look unsettled for next weekend. A tremendous temperature gradient will take shape in the atmosphere. Current model trends put a frontal boundary somewhere in Iowa this weekend with strong storms and heavy rain again possible. Of course this is still many days away but will bear watching in the days to come.