With ongoing consistencies in the forecast models, the Storm Prediction Center continues to remain confident in the threat of a widespread severe weather event across the state of Iowa on Tuesday. This threat will include all modes of severe weather. This could be the first day for local storm chasers to hit the road across Iowa. You can see in the graphic to the right that the entire state is under a slight risk for severe weather at this time.
A storm system will push a a low pressure system that should set up shop somewhere in northwest Iowa on Tuesday Afternoon. Stretching east-southeast from that low pressure system will be a warm front. Areas south of this warm front could see very warm and unstable conditions. It’s this setup where we could see initial storm development on Tuesday that could lead to supercells capable of producing strong damaging winds, large hail and possibly a few tornadoes.
In the graphic to the left you can see the risk of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of any given point. Now 3 forecast days away, a 30% risk is somewhat substantial. I would not be surprised to see some areas upgraded in terms of risk status as the finer details become clearer in the next couple of days.
This forecasted event looks to be the best shot for severe weather across Iowa after a very active period of stormy weather across the state. Planning is already in the works to coordinate with area chaser and perhaps join them. If and when the conditions warrant extended coverage of the storm, be sure to join us as we track any storms that develop.