Potential Outbreak Again Possible Today

day1otlk_1200 The conveyor belt of storm system after storm system continues today.  The Storm Prediction Center has posted a moderate risk for much of Iowa.  But depending on where you live, the threat is quite different.

We’re monitoring storms out to the west early this morning as they trace across the area.  By the afternoon hours, we should see a redevelopment pattern.  Supercells are expected to form, producing tornadoes and very large hail.

day1probotlk_1200_hail This is the primary threat for extreme western Iowa, especially in areas closer to a triple point setting up near northwest Iowa.  Along with a modest risk for tornadoes, you can see in the graphic to the right the risk area for large hail today.

As the storms make their way to the east, the severe weather threat is expected to last well into the night.  Storms should begin racing across Iowa overnight, shifting the threat to primarily strong, damaging winds.

day1probotlk_1200_wind Take a look at the graphic to the left, you can see a large part of the state facing the highest risk for a damaging wind event.  This is the area of concern that will have to be closely monitored for a long-duration widespread severe weather event.

There is another concern as these storms move through, heavy rain.  Already saturated grounds will cause problems in two different ways.  One, any storms producing strong winds will have an easier time taking down trees because the ground is soft in many areas after days of rain.  And two, heavy rain could produce flash flooding and eventually river flooding in some areas.

All of this will have to be closely monitored throughout the day.  We’ll keep an eye on any and all developments throughout the day and bring you the very latest as the storms move through Iowa.

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