It looks like our wait for the first severe weather of the season will be a bit longer. At least for western Iowa the timing of Friday’s storm system looks good, but there’s little in the way of instability.
This morning, the Storm Prediction Center placed its vague “see text” status over Iowa, which means severe weather is not expected but possible. My guess is there’s a slight chance of a storm produce marginal hail or strong winds.
As for eastern Iowa, showers and isolated thunderstorms will push through late Friday and Saturday. The SPC also has a marginal risk out for most of Illinois on Saturday but again, with leftover convection from the night before its certainly nothing to make the trip for.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, stronger storm system still shaping up, but the timing and placement of its track is uncertain. The GFS model remains somewhat consistent while others continue to flip flop, leaving us with a “wait and see” attitude.
Looking beyond Tuesday, weather should return to a more normal temperature pattern. Of course that should prevent severe weather here in eastern Iowa. Current trends do not indicate any warm ups like we’re seeing today in the coming days so for now it’s best to get out and enjoy the 80’s!