No Foolin’ Here

Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook Iowa

We hope you are out enjoying the weather this afternoon as temperatures will be in the 60’s and 70’s around the state. This warm weather will continue through tomorrow before a cold front moves through the state late Wednesday evening. As this cold front moves through the state, this will trigger a line of thunderstorms, possibly severe. From the graphic above, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe storms for western Iowa.

hires_ref_iowa_35

Simulated Radar Reflectivity at 4pm Wednesday

Thunderstorms will begin to develop across northwest Iowa after 4pm Wednesday. Early on, is when the greatest potential for severe weather will be. As the cold front continues through the state, this will lessen the severe threat.

hires_ref_iowa_40

Simulated Radar Reflectivity by 10pm Wednesday

From the graphic above, by 10pm, a line of storms will be entering into central Iowa. This line of storms may have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. Also within this line of storms, heavy rainfall totals will begin to add up.

hires_ref_iowa_46

Simulated Radar Reflectivity by 3am Thursday

However, as this system begins to move into central Iowa after dark, we will begin to lose the key ingredients to maintain this line of storms. Because of this, by the time the cold front reaches eastern Iowa, storms will be more widespread and just your typical spring time thunderstorms.

Forecast Rainfall Totals

Forecast Rainfall Totals

The cold front will then exit the state by early Thursday morning leaving behind cooler weather and decent rainfall totals. The heaviest rainfall totals will occur across western Iowa where storms will have the greatest intensity. To recap, only damaging wind gusts and large hail will be expected from any storms that do become severe. There is a slight chance for an isolated tornado or two across central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, so because of this, our chase team is currently in route to get in position for tomorrow. We will be streaming that chase live on YouTube at (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpCODfoV1Ec) starting at 2pm Wednesday. We will continue to update you on all the very latest so continue to check back here for all the latest updates.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

(3) Comments

  1. I am looking to get some great photos of tomorrows event. I keep watching the NAM, GFS and NOAA SPC models to see where I should think about setting up. I am thinking Jackson,MN along I-90. Does that seem like a good area?

    • Zach Sharpe

      Russell, I believe the greatest threat for severe weather will be out in eastern Nebraska. I think by the time things move into the state, we will be losing ingredients for the storms to maintain severe strength. Might just be a little gusty when the line of storms rolls through.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: