Rain Tuesday Morning is a precursor to several chances for severe weather over the next 3 days. Tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon. The thinking is the cap will begin to erode first in northern Iowa, giving storms a chance to develop. If this does not happen, late night storms can be expected as the low level jet increases.
Either scenario does not bode well for stormchasing, it’s likely that the storms will stay too far north and too far west for us to do much at all about them. Turning to Thursday, many questions remain.
Areas south of the warm front can expect rapid temperature increases and some of the first genuinely warm and muggy air of the season. This will create a very unstable atmosphere. Once storm initiate, a larger scale severe weather event is possible.
Friday the threat for severe weather remains as the low pressure and cold front push through the state. Not a lot of thinking has been put towards this threat as the focus remains on the first two, but the Storm Prediction Center warns this could also become a major severe weather event beginning in eastern Iowa. That thinking, if verified, would bode very well not only for a stormchase but the prospects of tornadic development.
At this point, all we can do is keep an eye on it. Despite a lack of stormchases in recent weeks, we are certainly ready to go if needed.