As we move into the work week, the level of moisture and instability continues to ramp up across the Great Plains. This will add to the severe weather threat over the same area and Sunday and expand it to a much larger area.
Additional instability will be in place as the dry line stretching south of the storm’s center will help dew points top the 60 degree mark in areas of Oklahoma and Texas. This should be more than enough to produce multiple supercell thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, strong winds and a few tornadoes. The threat will be even greater to the north in Kansas. This triple point area will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development in an environment more suited for rotating supercells.
In this probability graphic above, you can see a breakdown of the slight risk into probabilities. You can see the target area for widespread severe weather to break out, Although still a smaller area, this 30% risk and areas just south of it should serve as a good focus for storm chasers and spotters in this area. Terrain and roads will be in good shape for those that venture out.
There are even better threats of severe weather as we move into the work week. More on that later.