All eyes are on the forecast models for Wednesday. This is due to a potentially dangerous day unfolding across far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and western Ohio. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) upgraded the severe weather outlook overnight to a moderate risk. This is the second highest category in the severe weather outlook. The moderate risk was issued mainly for widespread damaging winds that will be expected, but there is still a high tornado threat.
The window of opportunity for tornadoes will be very small, as storms will quickly grow upscale and form into one large line of storms, with heavy rain and damaging wind gusts. The greatest tornado potential appears to be focused along a line from Davenport to central Illinois, along I-80 and to the north. This however, is not certain yet, as how things play out overnight, will greatly impact this. This evening, storms are expected to develop across central and eastern Iowa, and will move to the east during the early morning hours Wednesday. These SHOULD quickly dissipate by midday Wednesday. As these storms begin to dissipate, they will create outflow boundaries, and could shunt the warm front further south. The greatest tornado potential will be near the warm front and surface low. Any outflow boundaries that interact with the warm front, will also amplify the tornado potential.
As these storms grow upscale, they will merge into a line, and create a damaging wind potential. This is the main reason a moderate risk has been issued. It will also be possible that a few tornadoes may be embedded into this line of storms, but will not be visible due to the heavy rain that will be accompanied with these storms.
Our chase team will be out tomorrow tracking this severe weather potential, so continue to check back to IowaChase.com for the latest updates.