Models Locking In on Next Threat

The calendar has turned to May, the month most often associated with severe weather here in Iowa.  And it looks like storm chasers won’t have to wait long to get another shot at it.  Forecast models are honing in on a significant threat of severe weather in the coming week, particularly in the latter half.

Iowa Day Six Convective Outlook

In the graphic above you can see the confidence is already building, despite the face that we’re still six forecast days away from the event.  The storm system is expected to drape both a warm front and cold front over Iowa, in that order on Wednesday and Thursday.  We are looking at potential threats for both days.  For now, the most promising threat appears to come on Thursday.  That’s why the Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a large area, including much of Iowa, for a threat that day.

This far out, the risk area is general, but guidelines stipulate that a risk area can only be outlined this far out if there is strong confidence of at least a near-moderate threat for dangerous storms.

Bottom line, we won’t go into too many specifics at this time, but we wanted you to be aware.  The 2nd half of the coming weeks look rocky and downright dangerous.  It’s a situation we will be closely monitoring in the days ahead and plan to provide you updates each day leading up to the threat on Thursday.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at:

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