Mild Weekend

ECMWF Precipitation Totals

Did it feel warmer outside today to you? If today wasn’t warm enough for you, then hopefully by this weekend you will think it is warm. A mini heat wave is on the way starting Friday! The winds will be shifting out of the south by tomorrow morning, and this will begin our warm up.

Iowa Highs Friday

Highs Friday 11/21/2014

With a wind out of the south between 12mph and 16mph, highs on Friday will be warming up into the upper 20’s across the northeast to the mid 30’s across the south. Clouds will be on the increase from south to north on Friday afternoon. As the clouds move in, so will the chance at some light precip.

WRF Forecasted RadarThis precipitation will be very spotty in nature, only producing a light drizzle. This light precipitation will begin across southern Iowa after 7pm Friday. However, temperatures by then will be near or just slightly below freezing. Because of this, a light freezing drizzle will be possible. As you can see from the image above, the freezing line (blue line) is already starting to push into southern Iowa by 7pm.

hires_ref_iowa_46By 3am, the precipitation will continue to advance off to the north and so will the freezing line. By 3am, almost all of the state is above freezing with the exception of northeast Iowa. This will transition any freezing drizzle over to a liquid drizzle. We will then get a small break in the precipitation, before another bigger system moves into the state by Saturday night.

ECMWF Precipitation TotalsThe models have shifted the track of this next system from what we originally showed yesterday. Because of this, the heaviest rainfall totals look to stay off to the east of Iowa, out across western Illinois. Rain will be start Saturday evening and will continue through Monday. Rainfall totals look to range anywhere from a tenth of an inch to as much as an inch.

Iowa Highs SaturdayThe good news is that highs on Saturday will be in the mid 30’s across northern Iowa to near 5o degrees across southern Iowa. That will keep any precip this weekend in the liquid form. Lows Saturday night will be in the lower 30’s across northwest Iowa to the lower 40’s across southeast Iowa. Highs will then rebound into the 40’s once again on Sunday, before a cold front lowers our highs into the 30’s by Monday. It is possible that some light snow may fall Sunday night into Monday as temperatures drop below freezing. Not expecting any accumulations as the moisture will be wrapping up by this time.

Still looking ahead at your Thanksgiving travel across the state. Things are still looking golden heading into Thanksgiving. However, after Thanksgiving, models are not agreeing. The ECMWF is developing a decent storm system that will look to stay to the south of Iowa, while the GFS is keeping things dry. It is something that we will have to watch so continue to check back here for all of the very latest details.

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Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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