It’s too small to even highlight a slight risk area, only the Storm Prediction Center’s vague “See Text.” A cold front is forecast to pass through Iowa on Friday. Unlike our current conditions, it’s expected that SOME warmth and instability will return to eastern Iowa earlier in the day on Friday.
There are no expectations for a widespread severe weather event. But if we can get enough instability, showers and thunderstorms are possible. If any can reach severe criteria, strong winds and large hail are the primary threats. A good old fashioned summer-time storm system.
Although no slight risk area is outlined just yet, the SPC does place a 5% risk over the entire area. This will continue to be monitored and we will hopefully be able to provide an update on Thursday.
Besides the amount of instability at the time of frontal passage, another key factor in Friday’s event will be timing of the front. If the front stalls and moves through the area later at night, the atmosphere could stabilize, limiting the threat for severe weather.
As always, we will continue to monitor the latest model runs and provide updates as they are available. Look for a full update tomorrow.