After several days of marginal severe weather risks, a substantial risk exists for much of the state of Iowa on Tuesday. Although still a full 4 forecast periods away, you can see in the graphic to the left that the Storm Prediction Center is already forecasting a risk area.
This move is not very common because the risk has to be pretty substantial to see done by the SPC. So here’s how this will all play out. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be exiting the state in the morning hours. After that, the atmosphere should quickly destabilize as Iowa finds itself in the warm and humid sector south of a warm front.
Eventually, that warm front is expected to set up shop somewhere near the Iowa – Minnesota border. This warm front is the key because that’s where the best vertical shear profiles will be founds and the best chance for strong, long-track tornadoes may exist.
That is not the only area of concern however, a powerful, sweeping cold front will pass through the state, capable of all modes of severe weather. This could turn into a large, statewide severe weather outbreak that will affect a lot of people. If the forecast holds, we plan on deploying on Tuesday and will do what we can in terms of coverage from the field. Even if we lose our ability to communicate to you, we will still provide up to the second severe weather information here at iowachase.com
In the days ahead, this forecast can certainly change and we will bring you updates as that happens.