Main Event: Great Plains’ First Outbreak of 2013

day 3

This will likely be the day many storm chasers have waited many months for.  The first potentially major severe weather outbreak of the year.  As you can see in the probability graphic above, there is a strong chance for widespread severe weather across the central United States.  As this event draws closer, I fully expect the slight risk area to expand a bit.

At this time, our chase team is planning on focusing on the northern section of this threat on Tuesday, which could even trickle into southwest Iowa.  An area of circulation could serve as a focal point for rotating updrafts capable of producing supercells and tornadoes.  ALL modes of severe weather will be possible on Tuesday within the risk area.

The forecast models appear to have a good handle on the forecast as well.  Take a look at the Sunday Morning NAM Model Run looking at early Tuesday Evening…

model

You can see the large complex of thunderstorms forecasted for the risk area.  Here in Iowa this could mean a few strong thunderstorms, but further south across Missouri, Kansas, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas, severe weather appears likely.

As we said before our chase teams will be out tracking these storms.  You can follow their progress (when available) by checking out our LIVE COVERAGE page.

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