After several days of relatively quiet or stable weather, things look to change drastically as we close out the month of May. Considering this is generally the busiest time of year for stormchasers, it’s truly remarkable how quiet not only Iowa but the entire lower 48 has been over the last two weeks.
Now, it appears, that is about to change. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk outline for Saturday. In meteorology terms, that’s five days out which is considered "extended." Obviously that leaves plenty of uncertainty in the forecast but here’s how it could play out.
A warm front extending from northwest to southeast will set up somewhere in the risk area. Temperatures are expected to increase into the upper 70’s with 80’s possible after the warm front passes. At this time, the main threat from this possible round of severe weather is strong winds.
As always, until the weekend arrives, model trends will be closely monitored for any changes. We will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates as they become available.