Once again, we’re facing an extended period of wet and stormy weather. The good news is before this happens we’ll see a nice warm up across the state. The new Day 3 Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK provides us with a more detailed look at the threat for Saturday.
The models are doing a good job of pinpointing the greatest threat area, but timing remains a slight issue.
At this time it appears storms will develop just south and west of Iowa and quickly develop into strong supercell thunderstorms. Tornadoes are a threat but the SPC currently thinks the greatest concern comes from very large hail and strong, damaging winds.
The threat continues into western Iowa. When and where the worst will hit the state depends on the exact timing and placement of storm initiation on Thursday. With the set up in place, Iowa could see a prolonged, all-night severe weather event. Especially if a line of damaging wind producing storms develop and races across the state.
Depending on the overall track of these storms, another round is possible further east on Friday. This and chances for storms the rest of the week remain conditional. As the storm system lingers to our north, we could see showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
At this time it’s too unclear to tell if Iowa faces any severe risk Friday through Monday. At this time I would expect a few strong storms on Friday and Saturday, but this can change quickly and is heavily depending on the atmospheric setup after Thursday’s storms.
Chasers looking to head out will undoubtedly focus their attention just south and west of Iowa and likely push into the state if storms make it to the area early enough in the evening. Our break of quiet and cool weather is about to come to a screeching halt.
We hope to have more for you as the new model runs come in. Of greatest interest to me is Saturday. If storms move out of the area fast enough on Friday, I’m curious whether the atmosphere can recharge and we can get another round of storms. Only time will tell.