A blazingly hot stretch of days will finally come to a close as a strong cold front prepares to cross through Iowa. This interaction will also lead to a breakout of severe thunderstorms over much of the state, especially eastern Iowa.
As you can see in the graphic to the left the Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for much of the state. The latest model runs show a very unstable atmosphere Wednesday afternoon as the cold front approaches. At this time it appears the front will be strong enough to break the cap leading to explosive thunderstorm development.
The greatest threat for this exists east of Interstate 35. You can see the enhanced risk in the probabilities graphic to the right. Although supercells are expected to develop, conditions are not favorable for tornadic development. Even so, an isolated tornado or two is possible. We’ll monitor the tornado threat in future model runs for any potential change.
Of more concern is the threat of widespread damaging winds. Although not from a tornado, these winds can cause a lot of damage. Large hail is also possible as these storms fire over the state. A final concern is the track of these storms could lead to training of cells. This could produce heavy rain in excess of 3 inches in localized areas.
To wrap things up it appears severe weather will impact parts of the state on Wednesday. There could be more strong storms in the area on Thursday and Friday but for now we need to focus on Wednesday. We hope to bring you more updates during the day on Thursday and live coverage when/if needed.