Late Season Severe Weather?

1472882_655184827846110_1713763384_nWell it doesn’t look like we are out of the woods yet as the storm prediction center has issued a slight risk of severe storms for tomorrow. A low pressure system will develop in the lee of the Rockies and will push eastward overnight tonight. This low will also be accompanied by a warm front that will help trigger storms.

raincastShowers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of this low tomorrow morning, so parts of the state will be wet when waking up tomorrow. A few of these storms could be strong to severe, but the greatest severe risk will be in the evening hours Saturday night. The exact timing of the low level moisture is main issue with this forecast at the moment. Current thinking is that elevated storms capable of severe hail would be the main concern Saturday night. If we see a sufficient low-level moisture return Saturday night, then our risks could also include damaging winds and an isolated tornado risk. However, it is going to be very difficult to see any tornadoes as the best severe parameters will occur after dark, and it is very difficult for them to occur after sunset this time of year. Forecast soundings also do not support extensive surface-based development due to a warm layer aloft so the severe risk is very isolated. As of now, it looks like our only risk will be severe hail, and that is if any storms do become severe.

Like always, we will continue to keep an eye on this developing situation, and will bring you the very latest on our Facebook page and at Iowachase.com.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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