It’s Snow Cold!

ecmwf 12z snowfall

airline

At last check, for anyone that is wanting to avoid the cold and snow, flights that leave on Monday from Des Moines to Miami Florida, round trip, will cost you $776. After looking at the forecast, it might be a nice idea.

GFS Highs Wednesday

GFS Highs Wednesday 11/12/2014

Why are we picking Miami? Well from the image above, you will notice that while temperatures here back at home on Wednesday will be in the 20’s and 30’s, Miami will be in the mid to upper 70’s. Have we convinced you to leave yet?

If you think the cold will be bad, how about we make it even better by throwing a chance for accumulating snow on top of that! That’s right folks, this limited time offer we will include snow and cold all for the price of one miserable day!

In yesterday’s update, we included the different model runs and what they were throwing out. They showed the potential for accumulating snow across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Today, the models have drifted a bit more to the north.

GFS 12z Total Snowfall

GFS 12z Total Snowfall

We will first start off by showing the very latest 12z GFS run of accumulated snowfall totals. As you can see the best chance for accumulating snow will be across southern Minnesota and extreme northern Iowa. Lighter accumulations will still be possible north of I-80, but the majority of the precipitation according to the GFS will be liquid before changing over to snow by Monday night.

ecmwf 12z snowfall

ECMWF 12z Snowfall

Now compare the GFS to the ECMWF (European model) as shown above. Both models take a similar track; however, the ECMWF does show a little more snow accumulating across northern Iowa than the GFS.

GEM 12z Snowfall

GEM 12z Snowfall

The GEM (Canadian model) is also showing a very similar track, with the exception that snowfall totals are lesser than the ECMWF and GFS.

Things will continue to change as we are still a few days away and this is why we are not including snowfall amounts in this discussion. However at this time, the main thing that we will be watching is the track and timing. The amount of snow that we receive will all depend on the track of this system, and the temperatures near the surface. If colder temperatures are allowed to move in while the majority of the precipitation is falling, then we will see more snow. If the colder temperatures hold out until the majority of the precipitation is over, then we will see lower snowfall totals.

4" Soil Temperatures

4″ Soil Temperatures

One last item that we want to mention, is the ground temperatures. As of last report, 4″ soil temperatures are still in the mid to upper 40’s. When the snow does begin to fall, it will take awhile for it to start to accumulate. Because of this, any accumulations will be less than what the models are throwing out.

We will continue to bring you all the very latest updates throughout this weekend, so continue to check back here for all the very latest details.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: