It’s A Step

GFS 6 Hourly QPF 12/15

Highs FridayWhile then next few days will be quiet in the weather department, there is a system that is trying to get its act together by the end of the weekend. To start off, temperatures will be slightly cooler than originally thought. The clouds will be sticking around for the week ahead, so this will have an impact on out temperatures. If the sun was out on Friday and Saturday, temperatures would be even warmer. Temperatures will be warming up into the upper 40’s by Friday and even a few degrees warmer on Saturday.

gfs_ptype_slp_east_21By Sunday night into Monday, a low pressure system will be moving across Missouri. This system will have a good amount of moisture with it. The track of the system will be to the north enough that temperatures are going to be above freezing during the majority of the time. Most of the precipitation will fall as rain across the state, however, colder air will be wrapping in on the northwest side, and this will transition rain over to snow across northwest Iowa.

EUROStarting with the ECMWF, you can see that the only snow accumulation will be across northwest Iowa Sunday night into Monday. Right now the ECMWF has accumulations of 1″ to 3″ of accumulation with isolated 4″ totals. A rain snow mix will be possible to the southeast of this outlined area, so light accumulations may be possible further to the southeast of the purple shaded region.

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_east_23The GFS is slightly further to the north and only brings light accumulations to the state.

gfs_total_precip_east_24

Places that do not end up with the snow, will be seeing a decent amount of rainfall. Rainfall totals will be between a tenth of an inch to as much as three quarters of an inch. The greatest rainfall totals will be across western Iowa.

There is still much to watch, but with cooler temperatures this weekend and a system on the horizon, it is possible that snow may work into northwest Iowa by Monday. After this system pulls through, cooler weather, however, still a few degrees above average will remain through next week. There are a couple more systems that are forming between now and Christmas, so there are still a couple more chances for a white Christmas.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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