There’s not a large area under a threat for tornado development today, and you can blame a near stationary front for that. This morning the slight risk area in the Great Plains is somewhat small, thanks in part to that front and also a questionable amount of instability and dynamics in the region.
The largest area of concern sits in northern Texas, the Oklahoma panhandle and far western Kansas. This is where there is some good low level shear that could be supportive of a tornado or two if strong storms can fire up this afternoon and evening. Although a sparsely populated area, the tornado risk could stretch into the nighttime hours which is of some concern. Otherwise, a good risk for this area for large hail will also be in place.
Further to the north and to the east into Oklahoma, Arkansas and areas of Missouri, there is a low-end threat for an isolated storm or two capable of producing some large hail. A better chance for this kind of development lies in portions of Tennessee, Kentucky and points east. This is also an area, including areas closer to the east coast, where a threat exists for a wind even tonight is storms can fire and form a bowing line of storms. A similar situation unfolded during the early morning hours of Thursday.
We’ll continue to monitor the tornado threat for this small portions of the Great Plains, and bring you updates throughout the day as needed.