With so much heat and humidity surging into the Upper Midwest, it was only a matter of time that something had to give. We’ve talked about isolated storm threats for days but isolated is the key word with little instability and even less forcing in the area.
Now, a storm system will make its way into Iowa on Monday, bringing with it a more organized threat of showers and thunderstorms. As a result the Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for a large portion of the state for Monday. You can see this in the graphic to the left.
This is a very general threat but one that certainly bears watching. After days of record heat, showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire, capable of producing severe weather. All modes of severe weather could be possible, but large hail and strong winds will be the primary threat. I’m not ruling our a tornado or two on Monday because of some favorable shear parameters that could be in the area.
The biggest thing any organized severe weather will have to overcome is an expected low amount of instability expected on Monday. Even so, shear profiles look good so storms will need to be closely monitored if and when they develop on Monday.
Another thing to watch out for is heavy rain. For many parts of the state, however, the threat of spring rains is welcomed as large portions of the state remain dry. In fact northwest Iowa remains under severe drought conditions. Rain there would help start the process of possibly alleviating those drought conditions.
But for now the focus is on the severe threat on Monday, we’ll continue to monitor changes in the forecast and will post an update on what to expect tomorrow morning.