Increasing Snow Threat

The past 3 days we have continued to show you every model run to show you how this weekends system is evolving. On Wednesday, the models were through the roof compared to what they showed Thursday morning. Last night the models continued to move northward and increased snowfall accumulations. This morning, the forecasted snowfall accumulations have increased once again. Right now, all the short range models, including the NAM and WRF, are very bullish.

WRF 12Z Snowfall Accumulations

WRF 12Z Snowfall Accumulations

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NAM 12Z Snowfall Accumulations

As you can see above from the WRF and the NAM, they are both depicting much more moisture which allows for the higher snowfall totals. Right now, this seems to be a little overdone, however, what is to note is where the heaviest snowfall is being depicted. If you live across southern and southeast Iowa, you have the highest possibility of seeing the most snow.

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ECMWF Snowfall Accumulations

Throwing the ECMWF into the mix, it too is also showing the more northern shift in the track that occurred overnight. This more northern trend does appear to be the case, however, the question remains how much snow we will actually end up with as reports from the media, the National Weather Service, and social media sites are conflicting.

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The NWS offices across the state of Iowa have put their numbers into one map which is shown above. Snowfall forecasts are a very complicated thing to forecast. Any shift north or south, or a few other things, could greatly impact snowfall accumulations both ways. Numbers will continue to change even in the next 24 hours so continue to check back with us all day as we continue to track this system that will move through the state Saturday night into Sunday.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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