For now, we’ll focus on the beginning of this stretch of severe threats by focusing on today’s risk area. In Iowa that does not include a lot of real estate. The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for extreme northern and northwest Iowa. There is a very fine line for this severe risk and I’ll explain that next.
A frontal boundary is expected to pass through northern Iowa later today, on its way to southern Minnesota. Overall this frontal boundary is weak, but should strengthen as we inch closer to sunset. Some strong to severe storms are possible for a short time in northern Iowa. The best threat for strong storms is north of the border today because of much better convergence in Minnesota.
But again, I want to stress this is a pretty fine line. Look no further than the risk area for large hail today. You can see the very sharp cutoff between the lower and highest risk between Iowa and Minnesota. While I wouldn’t rule out a shift in this risk area, we’re not seeing this morning.
The greatest risk for strong storms should remain to our north today and tomorrow, before shifting over Iowa on Friday to wrap up the week. Right now the weekend looks quiet, but warming and a little more humid.
We’ll continue to monitor today’s trends as this storm system continues to evolve and bring you updates as needed throughout the day. Also, we’ll update tomorrow’s threat for severe weather later this afternoon.