Many of you might be hearing the phrase, severe weather outbreak swirling around on social media. This is because a rather impressive storm system is forecasted to move into the Midwest by Wednesday morning. So what is this talk about about?
Low pressure will be moving out of the Rockies Tuesday evening, and will be tracking off to the east/northeast across Kansas, and eventually right through the state of Iowa. As this low continues its track off to the east/northeast, it will be deepening. It is currently forecasted that when the low will be right over Iowa, it will have a pressure of 986mb. It will continue to deepen as it moves out of the state, which will create a very tight pressure gradient.
One thing to note is the lack of instability. Surface based CAPE values will range from 100J/kg to 500J/kg. This will cause the severe weather threat to be conditional here in the state. As of now, damaging winds will be the primary threat here in the state. The greater severe weather potential will be off to the south across Missouri and Arkansas. This is where a 30% risk of severe weather has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center, which is not commonly seen.
Rainfall totals will be quite impressive as they will range from 0.5″ to 1.5″, with locally higher amounts possible. With the tight pressure gradient this will cause the winds to be howling. Winds will be gusting over 30mph during the afternoon Wednesday into Thursday.
Continue to check back here for the latest information as we will be tracking any changes over the next few days.