With much of Iowa well south of a northward moving warm front on Tuesday, very warm temperatures for this time of year will be experienced by much of the state. While this will produce vast amounts of instability in the atmosphere, it will likely go unused as a cap will set up shop, preventing any severe thunderstorms development across the state on Tuesday. This scenario will play out if the warm front stays north of Iowa an an advancing cold front stays west of the state.
One thing that could drastically alter this setup is if the cap would break later in the evening on Tuesday, this could potentially draw an MCS into Iowa Tuesday Night and we could see some strong storms. Overall the severe threat is VERY low as you can see in the graphic to the left. Bottom line is the heat and the humidity will likely be the story of this day, with a greater threat for severe weather coming on Wednesday as this storm system moves on. You can read more about Wednesday’s threat by clicking here.