Over the weekend we told you about a coming threat for severe weather here in Iowa. That potential appears to be on track as another weather system draws closer to Iowa. With it, comes more traditional heat and humidity for this time of year that could also fuel strong thunderstorms as well as some significant spring rains.
First, the threat for Tuesday. The day should stay relatively quiet across Iowa. But enough instability will be in place for thunderstorms to develop after sunset. The area of focus on Tuesday will be north of highway 30. These overnight storms could produce an isolated severe storm or two, but no organized threat is expected. The main threat with any storm that does become severe would be large hail.
In the graphic above, you see the risk area for Wednesday. Nearly the entire state of Iowa will face the threat of severe weather. A warm front will push north across the state, bringing with it warmer and muggier conditions. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and a few 90s are not out of the question in southwest Iowa. This will provide the fuel needed for any potential severe weather development. At this time, we do not expect a threat for severe weather during the daytime as the atmosphere will remain capped. But after sunset, storms could fire, producing a threat of large hail and strong winds. One main concern is instability will be limited after dark. Because of this, it is possible that we will could remain dry all night, before rain eventually moves in from Kansas by Thursday morning.
Now, onto Thursday. One concern with Thursday’s setup is leftover clouds and rain from the early morning round of thunderstorms could stabilize the atmosphere. But, any clearing we see should quickly overcome that problem. This setup yields well to the production of strong winds and large hail. A few tornadoes will also be possible, but not the primary, widespread threat.
Either way, a rocky week that warrants a lot of attention by everyone here in Iowa. We’ll continue to monitor the latest trends and bring you updates throughout the week as our chase teams prepare to intercept whatever comes our way.