Good Thing It’s Not Winter Anymore

day3otlk_0730 Why do I come up with a title like that in a storm chasing blog? Because the storm system affecting the Midwest would be a snow producer for Iowa if there was still enough cold air around.

The quiet period is about to come to an end, but the forecasted track of the next storm system should keep all threats of severe weather south of Iowa.  The Storm Prediction Center has already posted a slight risk for this area, as a cold front should sweet across Texas as the western parts of Oklahoma.  The area looks primed for severe weather and this could touch off the first “outbreak” of the season.

day48probThis should be the first of several rounds of severe weather this storm system produces.  But again, right now it all looks to stay to our south.

Does that mean Iowa is out of the woods?  Not quite.  Taking a look at the model runs, we’re limited in our forecasting right now because we just don’t have a lot of data.  Some of the shorter range models are in agreement with the Thursday scenario for Texas and Oklahoma, leaving us to believe the storm will stay south.

What’s unusual about this storm system is that it’s not the usual path a storm takes this time of year.  Rather than making a sweep to the north, towards Iowa, the storm center is forecast to travel east and even a bit south and it moves across the US.  Very unusual but of course possible.

gfs_slp_132m What I’m slightly concerned about is a more northerly track to the storm with each long range run of the GFS.  It’s a small shift, but if it continues, we will have to monitor southern areas of Iowa for a potential severe weather threat this weekend.  But for now, the greatest threat will remain to our south.  We’ll still see showers and thunderstorms, but nothing too concerning for this type of year.

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