Over the past few days, we have been in an a quiet pattern with not a whole lot weather wise happening. However, that is about to change for much of the central part of the United States. We have been keeping our eye on a system that will affect much of the central part of the United States starting tomorrow and lasting through Thursday. With this system, there will be a chance for severe weather from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, to even potentially the lower Midwest.
A large upper low will sink southward across the great basin on Monday. By late afternoon, this surface low is forecasted to deepen over the western Oklahoma and Texas panhandles into southwestern Kansas. There will be two boundaries that will help ignite storms. A stationary front extending eastward from western Kansas along the I-70 corridor and a dryline extending south from the low into western Texas. Heating near theses boundaries will result in destabilization. A few cells could produce large hail perhaps up to 2” to 3” in diameter, along with the threat of a tornado or two.
On Tuesday, this weather pattern will continue, however, the severe potential over the region in very uncertain as there are a lot of uncertainties with the timing and magnitude of the severe potential. For now, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside over the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas which could produce isolated severe thunderstorms.
On Wednesday, the low and cold front will continue to the east and as they do, they will come in contact with a moist low-level airmass, and that could produce another round of severe weather. Once again there is a lot of uncertainty with the timing so it is complicated to pinpoint exact locations that will be impacted. For now, severe thunderstorms will be possible from Oklahoma and north Texas to the lower Missouri/middle Mississippi river valley. There is the potential that severe storms could be as far north as parts of the upper Midwest and upper Mississippi river valley. As the trough becomes negative tilted on Thursday, the severe risk should spread eastward into lower and middle Mississippi valley. Some severe risk on Thursday could even potentially exist as far north as the Ohio valley and the great lakes region.
There are a lot of variables that could change a lot of this forecast, but for now, tomorrow will be the best day for severe weather. Another item to take away is even if severe weather doesn’t occur, rainfall totals will be very impressive. Some areas in Kansas and Missouri could see over 3 inches of rain. We will continue to keep an eye on this over the next few days and will continue to bring you the very latest on our Facebook page and right here at Iowachase.com.