With everything dependent on what happens Thursday, Friday’s forecast is somewhat conditional. However, we do believe that all the ingredients will be in place for a potentially explosive day and night across Iowa. Strong to severe storms from Thursday evening should weaken in the morning hours of Friday as they move across Iowa. Once they clear, warm and unstable air will move in to the south of a cold front draped across the state.
This is the area we will be closely watching for severe thunderstorms development. Where will that front be? It’s hard to say. It could be draped across the state or slightly further north. At this time, it appears the best parameters for severe weather will be found in the northern half of Iowa, as well as portions of southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. This is the area where we will watch for thunderstorm development. The first few hours of the outbreak will also bring an enhanced threat for tornadoes. Eventually, the primary threat will shift to large hail and strong damaging winds.
Above you can see the risk for severe weather covers much of the state, below you can see how that risk breaks down…
The red light indicates a 30% risk for any given area to see severe weather. The bright blue line that’s covering it is the enhanced risk area, where we could see significant severe weather including tornadoes, very large hail and winds that could reach 70-80mph. This is something that EVERYONE In the state of Iowa and the surrounding area needs to be aware of and stay tuned for.
This is an event that could impact a large part of the state and we plan to cover it extensively. We will be tracking the storms both online and in the field. Storm chaser Ben McMillan will lead his team across Iowa to track the storms as they develop, and we will bring you his live coverage right here on iowachase.com and our Facebook page.