The on again, off again threat of severe weather continues to muddle the forecast as a persistent storm system produces several rounds of severe weather across the central United States. Beginning with today, where a slight risk for severe weather exists for portions of southwest Iowa.
This threat for portions of Iowa appears low, and likely will occur around or after sunset. Storms will persist over much of the night on Saturday into Sunday across Iowa. Most of these storms should stay below severe limits but this is a threat we’ll continue to monitor in the hours ahead.
A more substantial threat exists on Sunday, but the timing could limit the area of the state facing this threat. Conditions will be more favorable for tornadoes to develop on Sunday. This could happen in areas of eastern and southeastern Iowa. This is where storms may develop, quickly developing into rotating supercells.
Of course as rapidly as things have changed, and as dependent as each day’s threat is on the previous day’s outcome, I would not be surprised to see this threat for Sunday change drastically over the next 24 hours.
In any case, we’ll continue to monitor changes in the forecast for this weekend and into next week. Besides the threat for severe weather, heavy rain is also a possibility. Several inches of rain may fall over parts of the state. At this time no major flooding is expected, but local areas could be affected by flash flooding if several rounds of heavy rain fall over one area. We’ll have another update on the threats facing Iowa later this afternoon.