Extremely Complicated and Complex Weekend

Weekend Risks This is by far the busiest extended severe weather risk I’ve seen over Iowa this year.  Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over the state in the next four days.

As you can see, eastern Iowa face two round of severe weather.  The greatest risks come Saturday and Sunday.  If we manage to destabilize enough on Friday, we could also see some strong storms then as well.  Overall the forecast is quite a mess.

A system will push through the upper Midwest giving Iowa two problems to deal with.  First, is a warm front that will trigger showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.  Second is a cold front which could pass through the state on Sunday.  This event could bring a more widespread event to the area.

Some of the models continue to show that this system will generally be weak and that its overall threat is low for severe weather.  However, the Storm Prediction Center is putting out these long-range risks for severe weather so we will keep an eye on this system.

Risk for Friday, May 29, 2009 Although strong storms are possible on Friday (see image to the right), our main focus will stay on Saturday and Sunday.  Chase prospects are there but the final timing and location of the fronts will be the deciding factor in where and when to chase.  As always, check back later in the day and especially in the days to come as the threat of severe weather draws closer.   We will just have to wait and see how the next few model runs bring this system into the Midwest of the weekend.

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