ENHANCED RISK: Severe Storms Saturday 6/20

Day 2 Convective Outlook

We continue to keep a very close eye on the weather for this weekend. Two rounds of rain will move though the state on Saturday, with the possibility of large hail, damaging winds and even an isolated tornado threat.

Futurecast Saturday MorningA complex of storms which will move across the Dakotas Friday night will be packing a punch. This line of storms will be capable of producing damaging winds up to 80mph. This complex of storms will diminish by sunrise Saturday across northeast Iowa, which will create for an outflow boundary that will set up across central and eastern Iowa.

mgWeb_WRF_20150619-150000_ANC_ECONUS_F00303000_PwinterThickness_R4kmThis outflow boundary will be the focal point for thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon. By late morning to early afternoon Saturday, temperatures will be warming up in the 80’s with dew points in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) across southern and eastern Iowa will be between 2,500J/kg-4,000J/kg. This will provide enough fuel for storms to develop. Initially, storms will be isolated which may pose a small tornado threat. Storms will initiate along a line stretching from Des Moines to Cedar Rapids after 4pm.

Futurecast Saturday eveningThis line of storms will then quickly line out and then the threat will transition to a damaging wind threat. Some wind gusts may approach 70mph. The greatest severe risk will exist across southeast Iowa because of this damaging wind threat, which is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed southeast Iowa in an enhanced risk of severe storms. Continue to check back for the very latest details over the next 24 hours.

 

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: