If you have outdoor weather plans on Tuesday, you will want to keep a close eye to the sky. A few showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon due to the heating of the day. These storms will gradually diminish after sunset. We will have to keep a close on on how Tuesday morning will unfold, as this will be the key to how Tuesday afternoon/evening will play out.
According to the models, thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. If these thunderstorms and cloud cover does not clear out in time, this will inhibit the severe thunderstorm potential. The models do appear to bring enough clearing back into the state, where the atmosphere will become unstable again.
WESTERN IOWA: Storms should develop across eastern Nebraska after 3pm, and will push to the east. As they do, they will merge and become linear. Initially, across eastern Nebraska/western Iowa, a small window of opportunity does exist for an isolated tornado. As these storms become linear, the threat will transition to damaging wind gusts and large hail.
CENTRAL IOWA: Storms will begin to enter into central Iowa after 7pm and will pose the risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms will also have the potential to produce heavy rain, so flash flooding will also be a concern.
EASTERN IOWA; Storms will weaken as they enter into eastern Iowa, which is why only a slight risk of severe weather exists here. This is where damaging wind gusts and large hail will still be possible. Once again, flash flooding may also be a concern still as a few storms will pose a heavy rain threat.
Check back to IowaChase.com for the latest developments as we will be watching how things unfold overnight.