Early Warm-Up, But What About Severe Weather?

I’ve had a few people ask me in recent days… now that the 70’s are back in full force this week in Iowa, could severe weather be right around the corner.  The simple answer is not necessarily.  But the more complex answer is… maybe.

This most recent push of warm air is much more sustainable as the large-scale weather pattern begins its springtime shift.  This means along with the sustained warmth is more moisture and more instability.  This undoubtedly begins mixing the ingredients needed for spring storms.

Of course all of this still needs a triggering mechanism.  That comes in the form of a strong storm system.  None of those are currently in the forecast, thanks to an Omega block that should keep the area relatively dry and devoid of any major storm systems.

But that Omega block should eventually erode and by next week, the pattern here in the Upper Midwest looks to get a bit more active.  Where and when storms systems will track through is impossible to pinpoint at this time, but an active weather pattern coupled with a warmer, more moist air mass is just what Iowa needed to launch it’s 2012 severe weather season.  It’s certainly something that we’ll have to watch out for.  But for right now, enjoy the gorgeous weather!

*Editor’s note: for more on the process behind covering severe weather, check out our “Severe Weather 101” section here.

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