Happy Easter! We hope you are enjoying it with your friends and family. Yesterday, we told you about the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather for this upcoming Wednesday. As we near closer, we begin to increase the confidence in the forecast.
Wednesday is now in the sampling period of the 12z NAM, which is also helping increase this forecast confidence. The surface low will be near western Iowa by Wednesday afternoon, with a warm front extending to the east across northern Iowa.
The GFS is further to the north, with the warm front across southern Minnesota. This would place much of the state in the warm sector, which will provide the fuel for severe storms. The Euro model is further to the south, which is complicating things at this time.
However, it does appear that much of the state on Wednesday will see thunderstorms, with a severe weather potential. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a vast majority of a state in a day 4 convective outlook.