Complicated End to Week with Ongoing Stormy Pattern

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If you simply looked at today’s severe weather outlook you would think the chances of a storm chase look promising.  But looks can be deceiving.

A frontal boundary is expected to hang itself up somewhere in southern Iowa tonight.  That’s supposed to be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development. 

But the overall setup and confidence in timing and placement for this development remains low.  There is currently a minimal chance tornadoes will develop in any of these storms. 

day1probotlk_1300_hail At this time the greatest threat with any storms that reach severe limits tonight appears to be large hail.  Storm are expected to continue here in Iowa throughout the night once again so we will certainly keep an eye on them.

Turning to Saturday, a similar set up is in place, but the dynamics don’t look as good as today (and those aren’t very good either).

The Storm Prediction Center has another slight risk area out for southern portions of Iowa on Saturday, but again, chase prospects do not look good at this time.

Once all this is out of the area, Iowa will see a break from the stormy pattern, but not for long.  More chances for showers and thunderstorms could return as soon as Monday next week.  More on that later.  For now we’ll focus on today and tomorrow’s chances.

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