Complex Forecast Remains Very Much in Flux

Untitled It seems with each model run, each convective outlook that the forecast for today and tomorrow wants to do a 180 on us.  Today’s severe threat looked ominous yesterday, by this morning it looked questionable, and now it looks even more muddled.

risk Today’s threat is now focused more on western Iowa.  Showers and thunderstorms moving through this morning are expected to run into stable air and thus not create many problems in eastern Iowa. In fact, the storms might fall apart before reaching our area.

This afternoon and evening, it’s expected that a strong cap will prevent thunderstorm development for several hours.  Once the cap weakens, development is expected late far to our west.  What this all means is any severe thunderstorms in our area will likely come late tonight or early Friday morning.

Another big question mark today is the temperatures.   Yesterday it seemed as though the 90’s would be realized for many areas as warm and muggy air moved in.  While this is still expected, the change in placement of the front and the lingering clouds will prevent eastern Iowa from getting that warm.

fri As for Friday, questions remain.  A cold front will sweep through the area bringing another chance for severe weather.  Depending on the set up and the amount of instability, this might now be eastern Iowa’s best chance for severe weather.  But again, timing will play a key role as well as whether morning storms will clear out in time and a cap won’t prevent development in the afternoon.

A lot of questions I admit, the good news?  The weekend looks MUCH quieter!:)

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