We’re turning into the latter half of November now and so far, fortunately, no signs of an early start to the winter weather woes in Iowa. Sure we saw measurable snow in parts of central and northern Iowa a week ago, but that’s well in the past. Temperatures were rather mild on Tuesday. While that won’t last, a coming streak of colder conditions won’t bring snow with it.
Take a look at the graphic to the left. All those blue lines indicate a good area of colder air making its way into Iowa later this week. While no precipitation is coming with it, low temperatures will dip down into the teens and 20’s.
This is certainly not unusual for this time of year. There is a lot of cold air to our north that is just waiting to make its grand entrance into the Upper Midwest. Call this the early preview of that.
Of course with no serious pattern changes, this colder weather won’t last for long. Our next storm system enters the region during the weekend. While some good snowfall will come with this storm, that snow will to our north and west. You can see this highlighted in the graphic to the right. Notice the position of the red and blue lines. To be clear, in both of these graphics, the red and blue indicate air temperatures at an atmospheric level just above the surface. This is usually a good indicator of the type of precipitation that can be expected.
As has been with the case for many weeks, the models are having a tough time really seeing any pattern changes in the foreseeable future. For now I’m going to take this as a sign that the roughest winter weather is still a ways away. In my personal experience here in Iowa, we’ll be pretty lucky to make through the second week of December (about a month from now) without seeing a significant winter storm system affect a large portion of the state.
At this time there’s no way of telling whether or not that will happen, but something to kind of keep in mind as a benchmark. We’ll focus for now on the weekend storm system and any shifts in its track which could lead to a forecast change, especially for the northwestern parts of Iowa.