Chase Appears Likely. Target: Southeast Iowa

Severe Risk for Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Severe Risk for Wednesday, May 13, 2009

With each model run the outlook becomes more ominous especially for southeast Iowa.  As I keep saying, the ongoing events early this morning will continue to play a major role in the outcome for this afternoon and evening.

As we enter the “day 1” period according to the Storm Prediction Center, the threat of severe weather in eastern Iowa is increasing as I’ve expected.  Now I want to make something very clear… just because the highest risk of severe weather is to our southeast does not mean we’ll miss the worst of it.

Percentage Risk of Severe Wind Report

Percentage Risk of Severe Wind Report

Severe weather risks are based on probabilities, percentages of severe weather happening within 25 miles of any given point.  So while initial, surface-based storms are possible in eastern Iowa capable of producing all modes of severe weather, the threat further south and east will likely become primarily a major wind damage event.

Percentage Risk of Tornado

Percentage Risk of Tornado

The tornado risk is approaching the 5% to 10% range in eastern Iowa.  That’s a sizeable risk and at this point I fully expect tornadoes to form over the area.  Where, when and how strong remains to be seen.  Little has changed in my ongoing thinking, I still think the bulk of severe weather will occur around the 3pm hour.  We could see a round or two of marginally severe storms first in northern portions of eastern Iowa.  But if we see an explosive break in the cap, more violent storms could develop ahead of the cold front.

The best advice at this point is to stay advised of the situation throughout the day.  As we prepare to chase, we will do our best to keep this site updated, but the best place to go for information will be on our twitter and facebook fan page.

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