Brrrr, It’s Cold

Iowa Highs Thursday

High Temperatures Thursday 11/13/2014

While today will be similar to yesterday, the one change will be the wind. The wind will not be nearly as strong which will help to make it feel slightly warmer. However, our temperatures will still be in the 20’s today with not much of a warm up in sight.

The bigger story that we first told you about yesterday is the snow potential on Saturday. All of the models have been showing this chance of snow so it is likely that all of the state will see accumulating snow. The two main questions then, how much snow? and who will see the heaviest of it?

FuturecastThe snow will begin to enter the western portions of the state in the early mornings hours on Saturday. Initially, it may take the snow a short time to reach the ground as it does appear that there will be some dry air near the surface that it will have to overcome. The snow will quickly saturate that air near the surface, and then the snow will begin to pile up.

The image below is of the very latest 06z GFS snowfall accumulation map. The GFS has been lighter on the snowfall totals with only 1″ to 2″  of accumulation with isolated 3″ totals.

GFS 06z Snowfall Totals

GFS 06z Snowfall Totals

The very latest 12z NAM also shows a similar story with 1″ to 2″ of accumulation with the heaviest of the snow accumulation stay to the south of Iowa across Missouri.

NAM Snowfall totals

NAM Snowfall totals

The last model that I will show is the ECMWF, or also known as the European model. This model tends to me the one that has a better handle on storm systems. However, looking at the image above, it appears that it is the most aggressive with snowfall totals when compared the the GFS and NAM.

ECMWF Snowfall Totals

ECMWF Snowfall Totals

The only similarities between all three models is that snow is in the forecast on Saturday, with the heaviest staying to the south of Iowa. Right now it appears that statewide snowfall accumulations will be between 1″ and 3″.

Looking ahead past our snowfall chance on Saturday, a cold front will sweep across the state Sunday and this will usher in even colder air. On Monday, our high temperatures across the state may possibly be in the teens to lower 20’s across the state. Temperatures will be impacted by how much snowfall accumulation we get, and how much cloud cover will stick around.  If we see clearing and have a nice blanket of snow, this will allow for some very frigid temperatures. Waking up Tuesday morning, you will want to make sure you have the heat cranked up before you go to bed Monday night. Wind chills Tuesday morning will be below zero. Right now they are ranging 5 to 10 degrees below zero, but depending on how much colder we get, these may end up being 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

Iowa Wind Chills Tuesday

Wind chills Tuesday Mornings 11/18/2014

We are still 48 hours away, so things will continue to change. Because of that, continue to check back here for the very latest information. Make sure to follow us on Facebook and Twitter, as well as our Instagram account for all the very latest updates.

Zach Sharpe

My name is Zach Sharpe. I am the president and forecaster for the Iowa Storm Chasing Network. You can find me on Twitter @Stormchaserzach and on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/stormchaserzach/

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