Thursday November 6th is winter weather awareness day in the state of Iowa. This means it is a good time to prepare for winter by tuning up your vehicle, and making sure your emergency winter preparedness kit is ready to go. However, could winter be right around the corner?
The past few days we have been telling you that we have been keeping our eye on a system early next week that will bring a big change in the forecast. A low pressure system will be working through the state on Monday, and this will be filtering in the arctic cold weather from Canada. The models have been differing from one another the past couple of days, however, today there are in better agreement than they have been. The EURO has been ahead of all of the models the past few days, showing a deep cool down a week from now. Since it was the model that was the most aggressive with temperatures, it was ignored slightly, but was still being watched. Today, the latest GFS model is becoming more in line with the EURO and this tends to happen as we draw closer to an event. The EURO usually does a better job handling things further out, and the GFS is the one to play catch up and falls into line right behind the EURO; and that is exactly what happened with this mornings model run. The very latest GFS model ensemble is showing that temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below average as shown in the graphic above.
What does this translate to here? Temperatures next week will be in the 30’s starting next Tuesday and will remain that way throughout much of next week. A few locations across northern Iowa may only be in the upper 20’s for highs! As shown in the graphic above, highs, yes highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to upper 30’s across the state. It is going to feel a lot like winter after this system moves through the state on Monday.
If you think that Wednesday will be cold, just wait until you hear about overnight lows! Overnight lows starting Tuesday night will be in the teens to 20’s. Forecast lows Tuesday night as shown in the image above will range from the mid teens to lower 20’s. A few locations are trying to cool off into the lower teens, so we will have to see if this continues. If so, it is really going to feel a lot like winter!
In the very latest six to ten day temperature outlook from the climate prediction center, they outline a large area of the country that will be below average. Most of the state falls in an 90% probability that temperatures will be below average. And after looking over all the data, this is not surprising.
The next item of business is the probability of precipitation. The very latest 12z run of the GFS is further south, and is trying to bring a round of light precipitation across the state on Monday. The latest GEM has the precip across northern Iowa, and the latest 12z EURO, keeps the state precip free. Because of differences in the handling of the precipitation location, this will be continued to be monitored. Temperatures will be cold enough especially across northern Iowa that any precipitation will fall as snow.